2026 JANUARY
MARKET REPORT
SHORT READ
| PART 1
Contents:
A Country Known for its Looking for Longevity
The “TACO” President
A Glimpse into the Economic Result of the US in 2025
Trade Deals Between the U.S. and the World Nations May End up in Deep Trough
China’s Reaction to WTO’s Recommendation to Halve Its Industrial Subsidies
Achievements of Paris Agreement’s Member Countries in Ten Years
China is Leading the Manufacturing of Humanoid Robot
Latest Bangladesh Situation
China’s Polar Silk Road
Written by Andrew Sia
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From the Desk of the Publisher
We have some lengthy pieces here talking about the trade deal between the U.S. and the rest of the world after its Supreme Court ruled out Trump’s tariffs to 10%. The very next day Trump moved it up to 15% and threatened for more severe terms. This is going to make the global trading more complicate.
We wrote about the Paris Climate Agreement with 194 states and the European union after the ten years of its adoption. We commented in the most important areas about the progress.
You can refer to the rest interesting areas and I hope that we can receive some comments.
A Country Known for Its Looking for Longevity – New York Times, November 9, 2025
It was not so long ago, in fact it was just on September 3, 2025, China held a massive military parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square to mark the 80th anniversary of the Chinese fighting in resistance against the Japanese Army. With 12,000 troops and various heads of the states, Xi Jinping led dignitaries including Vladimi Putin of Russia, Kin Jong Un of North Korea, and Masoud Pezeshikian of Iran. Xi was caught by a Chinese state television microphone talking about the possibility of living to 150 and even longer.
This is quite real in the laboratory of Lonvi Biosciences, a longevity medicine start-up in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, where an anti-aging pill bases on a compound found in grapeseed extract has been developed.
Throughout the Chinese history, for the elixir of life has been underway in China for more than two millenniums as we can recall the first emperor, Qin Shi Huang, who ordered a nationwide search for longevity medicine. He dispatched Xu Fu who led thousands of young children with three years supply of food, clothing, medication, and farming tools and sailed towards the Japan islands to search for the said pills. In was then 210 BC and they never returned, and instead they settled in Japan.
Qin Shi Huang died at the age of 49, obviously died from mercury poisoning caused by anti-aging treatment. His creation of thousands of terra-cotta warriors was another episode that he wanted their production in his grave should he died.
Since then, the longevity medication business has been carried on as the surging interest from emperors of different dynasties continued. It became a legitimate business and China is still pursuing, and they would take any chance and pour in research funds to lead the world in biotech, artificial intelligence, and any advanced technologies to make the longevity industry and national priority.
From this news, we read about the race between the U.S. labs and the Chinese labs, and they gathered together to exchange their results. We also learned that a few years ago, Harvard Medical School was doing pioneer work on longevity, with experiments that extended the expected life span of old mice by 9.4% longer across their lifespan. Since then, China has been catching up and have seen vast improvements in this area. Together with life longevity pills, combine with healthy lifestyle, and good medical care, can help people to live past 100 to reach 120.
Today, China’s average life expectancy is 79 years. Japan has been known for its longevity and has been known for an average of 85 because of their lifestyle and the way they eat. The U.S. is not too much behind, is 79 years. With the world, it is approximately 73 years with regions like under 60 in parts of Africa. There are the significant disparities that are still existing.
It is known that grapeseed has been popular as a health food in the West and in traditional Chinese medicine.
The “TACO” President – WSJ, February 20, 2026
The US Supreme Court ruled out President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs on February 20, that he exceeded his authority in using the International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA) with the court rule of six to three. Right afterwards, Trump threatened that he will be using very powerful alternatives. He doesn’t listen carefully that the new tariffs would require congressional approval to extend beyond five months, and months of investigation would push the matter into his mid-term’s election.
This would also open another can of worms as to what would happen to more than $130 billion tariffs that were collected under the now invalid policy. It is already said that 300,000 importers would involve in this matter, and the world will enter into another dogfight. Trump, obviously under the advice of his top trade advisor, Peter Navarro, who is a hawk in the trade with China. This time it would weaken the president’s negotiation power.
“TACO” immediately changed the tariffs to 10% in response to the Supreme Court rulings, although the ruling doesn’t affect tariffs levied under other legal basis, such as the Section 232 tariff Trump has out on products such as cars, semiconductors, lumber, steel, and aluminum.
On the following day, Trump increased the global tariffs from 10% to 15%. Trump is going to trade acts that have never been used, to allow him the power to impose a levy of 15% in 150 days. He vowed that during the 150-day period, his administration would work on issuing new and legally permissible tariffs.
The $130 billion in tariffs using the IEEPA has already stirred up the U.S. businesses and consumers for refunds from the federal government, knowing Trump that he would try the lengthy legal fight to block the reimbursement.
A Glimpse into the Economical Result of the US in 2025 – New York Times, February 21, 2026
When Trump came into the office, the promises he made on his campaign trail all failed to fulfil. He promised to end inflation on day one, which picked up in 2025. The trade deficit in goods he promised to shrink, hit a record high. The manufacturing sector which he promised to restore jobs, but it shed jobs.
While economic growth ultimately held for the year as a whole, we found the gains were unevenly distributed. The rising stock market benefiting the upper class, but general households struggled to manage rising prices and a slow job market.
The gross domestic product of the U.S. for its fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4% down from the 4.4% rate in its third quarter, partly because of the prolonged governmental shutdown. This was well below the Dow Jones estimate of a 2.5% gain.
The economic growth ultimately helps to strengthen the year as a whole, the gains were largely coming from an A.I. investment boom helped the growth on track. We may say that the nominal GDP in total dollar value according to IMF was about $30.62 trillion. The real GDP in economic growth rate was recorded at around 2.2% for the whole year.
The traditional industries, farming and manufacturing, are struggling under the weight of Trump’s trade policies. The boom is taken over largely by the A.I. as it is the only thing that is growing. We have seen the construction of new factories fell in 2025, but the building of the data centers and the electricity to power them helped to drive 3.7% growth rate in business investment in the fourth quarter. We have noted that the chips and other components that go into such facilities are imported.
For 2026, the A.I. boom may continue, and the tax cut should help the consumers and businesses in the short-term. If the trade policy can stabilize, then it can help businesses to become more stable. It is known that A.I. can bring technological breakthrough, and innovative approach can allow production to produce more efficiently with the existing number of workers can control inflation. There are multiple ways to look into these opportunities.
In comparison with the second largest economy, China, for its nominal GDP of 2025 in its total dollar value was $19.4 trillion in U.S. dollar terms. Its real GDP in economic growth in according to IMF figures was less than 5%, although China’s official statistic report was about 5%.
China’s growth pace is slower than historical averages, but it is still robust. It is also focusing its growth in A.I. and we can see competition between the two economies in the same field.
Trade Deals Between the U.S. and the World Nations May End Up in Deep Trough – February 21, 2026
We read that the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate many of Trump’s tariffs that the administration signed in recent months with the country’s largest trade partners are now in disarray.
We have to know that many of the agreements had set the tariffs at around 15% or 20%, lowering from what would have been steeper duties in exchange for more favorable trade concessions, and even promises for those countries to invest in the U.S.
At this time announcing a 10% and the very next day, 15% global tariffs under a Supreme Court ruling would throw the world in disarray as every country is having its situation to deal after spending about a year of negotiations. We may look now at some key countries and find out the situation.
China – It has been the target of Trump’s trade war since his last presidency. China has different tariff rates for different products and then there is the fentanyl and related chemicals that ask for higher tariffs.
Tariffs for electric vehicles are set at 100%, and 50% on steel and aluminum products. Those duties already in existence have a significant impact on China’s export to the U.S. We can see the drop in export from China at about 20% last year. China has turned its export to other countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America.
It has set up factories for final assembly in Southeast Asia and Latin America to bypass Trump’s tariffs on goods coming directly from China.
European Union – EU struck a deal with the U.S. to cap the tariffs at 15% and included an agreement for Europe to buy $750 billion of American energy and increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion. The deal was delayed by Trump’s bid to gain control of Greenland.
At this time, the Federation of Germany is calling on the European Union to ask Trump to clarify the court’s decision and see if it would affect their trade deal. This is a sensible move as the companies would need to know the reliable trading condition in order to conduct business.
Canada – Some 90% of the Canadian exports are tariff-free right now under the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, except steel, aluminum, and lumber.
Mexico – More than 80% of Mexico’s exports are exempted from tariffs under the North American trade agreement.
Southeast Asia – Southeast Asian countries have been under constant threats from the U.S., high tariffs, for instance, like 40% for Cambodia, 46% for Vietnam, 36% for Thailand, and 32% for Indonesia, and by summer in 2025, they have all been reduced to 19%.
We have to know that the U.S. is depending on the supply from Vietnam for sneakers, furniture, and garment, and it has replaced China already.
South Korea – It was only in October, South Korea had reached an agreement with Trump for tariff of 15%, down from 25% previously. In return South Korea agreed to invest $350 billion in the U.S. for memory chips.
Japan – Known as the U.S. top ally in Asia, Trump still threatened it with tariffs as high as 35%. Then in July, Tokyo agreed for projects for $550 billion in the U.S., and in return Washington agreed to 15% tariffs on Japanese exports. But the South Korean’s investment of $350 billion over ten years appeared to have particularly lopsided, and Japanese officers saw little chance of improving its investment pledges.
Earlier on, a $36 billion funding was announced for a natural gas power plant in Ohio.
India – Trump ended a 50% punitive tariff in India on March 2, and changed it to 18%. But the agreement has left a lot of open issues, such as that India has to stop buying oil from Russia. But India has only agreed to reduce. Then India agreed to buy $500 billion worth of American goods within five years, which is the doubling of India’s import from the U.S. From the U.S. side it has made it clear that it wants American agricultural products exporting to India. Knowing Indian farmers are a powerful social force that would fight to protect its interest.
Taiwan – On February 12, the two came into a deal for Taiwan to invest $250 billion in semiconductor and technology manufacturing in the U.S. for an exchange of a lower tariff rates on 15%.
Britain – Britain has been the first country to strike the deal with Trump to set the standard for other countries’ negotiations. It had successfully reduced the tariffs of British car exports and set a baseline for additional 10% tariffs on other goods. It is still negotiating on its steel export, but Trump is pushing Britain to accept more agricultural products.
Summary – This Supreme Court judgement comes in the middle of all these chaos and confusion. We read that Trump has asked the nations for the following investments on the U.S. soil:
European Union – $600 billion
South Korea – $350 billion
Japan – $550 billion
Taiwan $250 trillion
Total $1.75 trillion
In the U.S., already $130 billion has been collected from the importers as import tariffs. We can see litigation looming from behind.
This can only make the business more challenging when we have just entered into 2026. I can’t see any solutions.
China’s Reaction to WTO’s Recommendation to Halve Its Industrial Subsidies – FT, February 20, 2026
China was admitted into the WTO on December 11, 2001. The country became the 143rd member after a lengthy 15 years of negotiations, and since then it has transformed its economy and global trade. Lately, the IMF has called China to cutback its state support for industry as international concerns mounts about its overcapacity as the world’s second-largest economy.
It is estimated that China spends roughly 4% of its GDP subsidizing companies in critical sectors and mentioned that this should be halved in the medium term.
With the reducing of business for export and the weak domestic demand, China is leaning more toward to dump its excess capacity to sustain its growth.
Complains have staggering up after China’s stepping up export of goods including higher-value items such as EVs. China’s global trade surplus in goods surpassed $11 trillion last year. This imbalance has stirred up tensions with the western countries.
The country has been battling with the threat of deflation, weak consumer confidence, high youth unemployment and a sustained property slowdown.
It was in 2024 when IMF called China to spend 5.5% GDP over the next four years to combat its property slump by completing unfinished housing and supporting unviable developers to exit from the sector.
This time IMF is calling China to spend 5% of its GDP over the three years to deal with its housing situation.
IMF urged China to adopt the policy of “consumption-led growth” and loosen its restriction on internal migrations’ access to social welfare and move to a more progressive taxation system to boost pensions.
As usual, China denied the findings of IMF and claimed that its industrial policies are open and transparent, apply equally to state-owned enterprises, private firms, and foreign-invested entities.
Achievements of Paris Climate Agreement’s Member Countries in Ten Years – New York Times, November 19, 2025
We have observed some changes after years of very difficult negotiations, nearly every country agreed to slowdown global warming to head off its most devastating effects. The core idea was that the rich countries would set their targets to reduce their climate pollution and to help the poorer countries to pay for the changes they need to cope with climate hazards.
We have seen every country remain commits to the Paris Agreement, except the United States after Donald Trump becomes its president. This makes the situation very sad.
Now we are going through the review to know where we are currently with all the initiatives.
Carbon Emissions – We have seen slower emissions growth and as the result, temperature increase has curved downward over the last ten years. If the countries would stick to its current policies, that is the global average temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 to 2.9° C by the end of the century. This is a significant improvement, considering that in 2015 it was projected to rise to 3.5° C.
But none of the world’s biggest emitters — China, the United States, the European Union, and India — have met their promises.
Hottest Temperature on Record – Global temperatures have been rising because of our large scale of burning coal in the last 150 years. The last ten years we have 10 of the hottest year on record. It resulted schools closed.
Solar Power Becomes the Largest New Source of Energy – Most of the solar infrastructure is coming up inside China. Chinese companies are the largest producers of solar cells, modules, and panels, and the prices have plummeted. We have seen solar farms covering vast areas of desert in Saudi Arabia.
Solar and onshore wind projects are offering the cheapest sources of new electricity generation.
Electric Vehicles – Electrified transportation is important as it is replacing combustion transportation which emits carbon. Currently electric vehicles are displacing two million barrels of oil demand per day.
Financial Aids to the Poorer Countries – Wealthy industrial countries are supposed to help the poorer countries to transit to renewable energy and to adapt to the problems brought on by hotter climate.
Last year, the rich countries were supposed to provide $1.3 trillion every year by 2035 to help developing countries to manage climate damage. So far, they have only sent $3 billion and that left the poor countries have to batter with severe weather and fall deeper into debts as they tried to recover.
Coal – The growth of coal has slowed down. In Britain, they closed their last coal plant last year, and more than half of its electricity is coming from renewables. U.S. under Trump is still expanding its use. China is also growing and continues to build more coal plants than any other countries.
Natural Gas – Over the decade since the Paris Agreement was signed, the U.S. has rapidly become the world’s leading producer and exporter of gas. Trump is using the excuse that gas is cleaner than coal as a source of electricity. We will continue to see the U.S. leading the supply of gas for the years to come.
Forests – We know that forests can store planet-warming carbon dioxide. But lately, forest fires have increased because of rising temperatures and more intense droughts are making forests ignite more easily. It is also because people are clearing forest for agricultural land.
Amazon, often known as the lungs of the planet, and rainforests in Australia are caught in forest fires, and this have brought more carbon emissions as the reverse effect.
Coral Bleaching – Because of the temperature of the oceans has risen, coral bleaching is found more frequently. Coral is important as it supports many other creatures, including fish that millions and millions of people are relying on for nutrition and income. About a quarter of all marine species depend on reefs at some point in their life cycle. Many reefs have ravaged.
Electricity Demand – The power demand is driven by the Big Tech for their data centers to power the AI workloads. It is the trend which we haven’t been considered.
China is Leading the Manufacturing of Humanoid Robot – WSJ, February 10, 2026
China is dominating the industry of humanoid-robotic manufacturing. More than 140 companies are sprouting all over China. It is tapping a vast ecosystem of parts suppliers and engineering talents. The humanoid robots are working in factories, hotels and offices.
Beijing has identified “embodied AI” — the fusion of artificial intelligence with physical systems as a cutting-edge technological area China wants to dominate in the coming five years.
Local governments are providing lands and banks are providing favorable loans and since 2024, Beijing, Shenzhen and other cities have provided investment funds totaling more than $26 billion to inject capital into the industry.
Government agencies are buying humanoid robots and deploy them in museums, at events, and on the street as robocops and performing traffic control.
Some local governments are helping firms to buy humanoid robots and only pay around 10% of the price for customers to try them as an incentive. It is applying the same way when China built up other industries, such as electric vehicles, which benefited from incentives for buyers to help stimulate demand. As the result China gobbled the market shares of General Motors, Volkswagen in China, Europe, and other markets.
Once again, China has mobilized state support, supply chain depth, and rapid commercialization to make it successful.
The U.S. has been working on an executive order aiming to boost the development of the American robotic industry. Many of the concerns that the American robotic companies are relying on China’s supply chain. Components like roller screws for robot joints and motor for robot hands for mass production will still be depending on China. U.S. can only lead one key area, that is the foundational AI model that serves as the brain of the humanoids. Companies like Tesla, Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, Nvidia, and Google have developed cutting-edge technology. But China has a broad supply chain of suppliers for bolts and nuts, sensors, batteries, and other components. They can be secured from suppliers within one-hour radius and can communicate with the suppliers for any problem.
It is said that up to 100,000 robots can be shipped in 2026 with the adoption faster in China than in the U.S.
In Shenzhen, where Tencent, Huawei Technologies and EV maker BYD are located. And around 15 robotics firms are coming up which make it into a “Robot Valley.” The Shenzhen government has set up around $1.4 billion fund based on AI and robotics industries.
Beijing also has an economic development zone with humanoid robot startups and funds totaling $14 billion to support AI and robotics industries.
Chinese government learned from the last electric vehicle booms with hundreds of firms who used the government support, low-cost supply chains and technical talents led to an overcrowded market and caused severe price competition that resulted unprofitable operation in the end.
This time it has learned the lesson, and the government has drafted out a set of technical standards to guide the development of humanoid robot industry and weed out unqualified players and accelerate adoption. China’s financial regulators have also tightened oversight on robotics companies who look to go public to reduce the risk of a bubble.
Latest Bangladesh Situation – WSJ, February 11, 2026
It was in July 2024, twenty-two months ago, the young Bangladeshis were frustrated with their job prospects took to the streets. The movement grew into a revolution, and its authoritarian leader, Sheikh Hasina, was overthrown.
It is only by now, Bangladeshis are going for their national election, and the young people are still frustrated as they are still struggling to find jobs. The interim government that took over in 2024, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, failed to deliver a promised democratic and economic overhaul with tangible results. The young student leaders who initially joined the new government and formed the National Citizen Party (NCP) also failed to improve their lives.
General election was held on February 12, 2026, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won a two-thirds majority in the South Asian country’s historical elections. The election commission reported voter turnout was 59.88% in one of the most peaceful elections in decades.
The BNP-led alliance won 212 seats, followed by 77% for the Jamaat-led alliance, out of 297 parliamentary seats for which results were announced.
The National Citizen Party (NCP), born out of the protests, came in third with 6 of the 30 seats it contested. Its leader, Nahid Islam, 27, also won, becoming one of the youngest MPs in the new parliament.
Bangladesh’s garment sector — being its second-largest employer after agriculture — has continued to lost jobs. Employment fell to 3.7 million last year from 4.1 million in 2019.
The number of universities in Bangladesh has boomed in recent years, with at least 700,000 graduated entering into the labor force annually. Without any practical skills and were graduated with degrees not matching to the job requirements created to more unemployment. More and more of the young people are thinking for migrating to countries in Europe like Sweden or Switzerland.
We can only say that for Bangladesh nothing has been changed. Except the country was able to export garments made from the US materials back to the US tariff-free. It was coming from a “reciprocal tariff” of 37% in April 2025, before it was reduced to 20% in August of the same year.
The zero-tariff is offered to textiles and clothing using US cotton, but Bangladesh’s cotton is also its economical backbone as it accounted for four-fifths of its export earnings. But this tariff treatment is giving the advantage over its export from India.
This zero tariff applies to textiles and garment using US cotton and man-made fiber. And much of Bangladesh’s clothing exports go to “big box” retailers such as JCPenney, Target, and Walmart.
Bangladesh is the global industry’s second-largest exporter of ready-made garments after China.
China’s Polar Silk Road – FT, February 13, 2026
China’s new icebreaker is able to crack ice with up to 2.5 meters thick. It is showing the ambition of Beijing’s expansion into the Arctic. Beijing shows its interest from establishing research bases to oil and gas drilling to joint military expansion with Rusia near Alaska.
China views the Arctic as a new frontier that it critical to its geopolitical and geostrategic competition with the U.S. and the West. Most of the Chinese military activities, including joint naval and air force patrols with Russia are near Alaska, about 4,000 kms from Greenland. This could be the reason the Trump administration wants to take over Greenland as the counterbalance of power in the region.
China’s main shipping route to Europe pass through NATO-controlled territories, including Canada and Greenland. In recent years it is more interested in the Northern Sea Route, which passes through the Russian waters. The Arctic routes can cut the voyage distance by 30 to 40% compared with the traditional Suez Canal route. It is more advantageous to China’s manufacturers in the northern provinces.