PROGRESS REPORT ON THE PARIS CLIMATE
AGREEMENT PART 14
2022 JANUARY QUARTERLY ISSUE
By Andrew Sia
COP26 was the hottest topic regarding the climate change and it was held in the beginning of November 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland. We have to notice that the summit of 2019 was cancelled because of the Covid-19.
All the world leaders were there as more than 200 countries turned up. One person that was missing was Xi Jinping from China. Biden and Xi tried to follow up by a teleconference for many other issues, and they caught up with mentioning about climate which was one of those topics. We observed that China and the US are the biggest carbon emitters and the leading actions should be taken up by these two countries.
On the other hand, China and India, both the world’s biggest users of coal, tweaked the words from “phase out” to “phase down” in order to reach the phasing down of using coal as an energy.
Opening of the COP26
It started on November 1, and a third of the top emitters didn’t attend the summit in person. These countries included China, Russia, Iran, Mexico and Brazil, and together they make up a third of global greenhouse gas emissions. The President of Turkey, Erdogan, cancelled his attendance at the last minute.
We attached the chart showing the top 15 carbon emitters.
For the following two weeks, the followings were the key climate discussions:
Climate finance – Both countries, the UK and Italy, raised their pledges to finance the shifting of green energy for developing countries. Knowing that those countries have not benefited during the industrial revolution when the fossil fuel was introduced.
The UK’s contribution increased from £11.6 billion to £12.6 billion. And Italy tripled its contribution to $1.4 billion a year.
This brings the total closer to the $100 billion annual target set down in Copenhagen more than a decade ago.
Coal – An agreement was set by the Italian president to end international financing for unabated coal power plants. But nothing was agreed on domestic coal phase-outs of the power plants or setting a date for phasing out those inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
Carbon pricing – It was mentioned that a wide range of fiscal, market and regulatory mechanisms to support clean energy transactions and also to consider the use of carbon pricing mechanisms and incentives.
Methane – This potent warming gas was mentioned the first time. Cut in this methane emissions, both from the gas leaks and agricultural sources, would bring the short-term impact in limiting global warming.
Keeping the 1.5 degrees Celsius – To set this as the target to limit the increase of the temperature since the pre-industrial times, instead of 2 degrees Celsius. But it is the fact that the Earth is warmed by an estimated 1.1 degrees Celsius already.
To keep it within the 1.5 degrees Celsius will require meaningful and effective actions and commitments by all nations.
The Conclusions for COP26
It was on October 13, negotiators from nearly 200 nations struck a deal to guide the world toward a more urgent climate action. But it was vague without scientist’s transformative breakthrough. This was after the hectic high-profile talks for pushing countries toward the near-term climate goals and try to move away from fossil fuels faster than ever. It is back to the wealthy countries to fulfil the promise made some time ago to help those poor and vulnerable nations to cope with the cost of the rising costs of climate change.
In this COP26, it repeated the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris accord, that is to limit the Earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. At this moment the global temperatures already went up by more than 1.1 degrees Celsius, and we have already witnessed havoc weather situation around the world. It is yet to be seen if the Earth can take the 1.5 degrees Celsius to deal with the mounting calamities inflicted by climate change.
The entire agreement appeared in peril when delegates from China and India proposed a last-minute change in text indicated the moving away from coal but only to agree that they will phase down the use of coal and not to phase it out. Moving out of the coal has been the objective for this summit and very reluctantly the other nations took into the consideration that both the people from China and India will still need it as a lifeline for their future. In the end, the agreement, including the word ”phase down” of the coal was adapted.
The final agreement also recognized the more scientific reality approach to halve the emissions in the next decade, rather than commit the more far off “net zero” targets. And the world’s two largest emitters, China and the United States have to strengthen their commitments to reduce as so far it had shown that the efforts are insufficient.
The rules for the global carbon market is yet to be resolved that can allow investors to buy and sell emissions reduction credits.
But on the whole the grievances were high like all summits when you can find activists and extremists picking on the failings of the summit. Very often the harshest condemnations were pointing at the wealthy countries for transferring their responsibilities to the developing countries. But it was often proved that those developing countries are battered most severely by any natural calamities due to the lack of inadequate protection.
The scientists condemned a year of monstrous hurricanes, raging wildfires, deadly heat waves and flash floods around the world. They claimed that these were the effects of the global warming. These crises also cost nations hundreds of billions of dollars and took away thousand human lives.
We have to mention that due to the coronavirus pandemic, the summit had delayed by a year. And access to the “blue zone” for the delegates who were tested daily. The unequal global impact of the pandemic triggered the anger of the developing countries to push for more helps from the wealthier countries.
Announcement to cut methane and stop deforestation, to phase out financing for coal plants together with the mounting debts for combating a deadly pandemic added another layer of grievances to those poorer countries.
During the period of the summit, an estimated 100,000 protestors stormed the streets of Glasgow who weathered the Scottish wind and rain helped to remind those delegates inside to take bolder policies.
The UN Environment Program reported that it is likely the Earth will be on track to warm by 2.5 degrees Celsius . The chance of keeping warm to 1.5 degrees Celsius will have a less than 20% chance between now and the end of this decade.
Warming beyond 2 degrees Celsius would be disastrous to the Earth. It would trigger the inexorable collapse of the Greenland ice sheet. The coral reefs would virtually disappear. Prolong droughts and crop-destroying floods would destroy farmland and put millions of people in starvation.
The cutting down on methane, a potent warming gas, was a key US priority at COP26. US President Joe Biden complained that China didn’t show up at Glasgow and made Xi Jinping as the villain of the event. But in the final days of the summit, the Chinese and US climate envoys said that they had found some common ground. China admitted that the challenge of climate change is both existential and severe.
The US climate envoy John Kerry said that the two largest economies in the world have agreed to work together to combat the climate change without mentioning that the two of them are also the world’s largest carbon emitters. The US-China concluded very little new emissions commitments, although the two countries agreed to update their emission targets by the end of 2022 and to set the five-year climate targets rather than ten-year ones.
Final Remark
COP26 ended in Glasgow after two weeks and it is time for the 200 nations to act now. Otherwise it will be like any ending of the summit and the neon sign will flash, “See you at COP27”. Do we still have time is the question hanging in the air.