2024 APRIL ISSUE
EVERYTHING YOU WANT
TO KNOW ABOUT ELECTRICAL VEHICLE
&
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
Written by Andrew Sia
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From the Desk of the Publisher
In this writeup, we led you through the industry of automobile and we came to know that actually the technology for the electrical vehicle was conceived more than fifty years earlier than the automobile invented using gasoline. Kudos to Thomas Edison, the American renowned inventor for various technology that benefited all mankind.
We told the story of BYD, the largest electric vehicle producer in China and perhaps it is now the largest for the world. In China, it is already a killing field as there are so many manufacturers in the electric vehicles who are fighting for the market. They are undercutting each other with lower-prices.
We have also brought out subject about the autonomous driving and it is an area that we would have to pay attention. It can change our concept of travelling on the cities and on our highway. We ask you to read thoroughly about this piece.
Introduction
Electric vehicle is an evolution for automobile industry. But to our surprise, idea was conceived earlier than we would have first thought. We can look back and find the invention of the automobile was always referred to Karl Benz, a German engineer, developed the first motorcar powered by an internal combustion engine.
Benz’s first automobile, also known as the Benz Patent-Motorwagen, was first completed in 1885 and patented in 1886. It was a three-wheeled vehicle with a rear-mounted single-cylinder engine fueled by gasoline.
This vehicle is considered as the first true automobile because it was the first to be powered by an internal combustion engine and design specifically for personal transportation on road.
It also laid the foundation for the modern automobile industry.
In my earlier days, I came across one replica in the Mercedes Benz showroom near to my house and I bought it and sent it to my headquarters at that time in Hong Kong. I displayed the three-wheeled vehicle at the reception area which resembled the carriage, except it was not drawn by the horse in front, but powered by the single-cylinder engine mounted in the back. Many of my guests and customers took pictures for memory.
Later the three-wheeled vehicle was donated to the Hong Kong Baptist University and it was meant for display purpose but somehow it was auctioned. It was to my greatest regret.
This piece I compiled the two writeups with different headings and because of the great potential to take the automobile industry to the new level, this has led us to competition in the geopolitical arena which is the most unfortunate.
Through my research, first of all, electric vehicle (EV) was invented in the early 19th century. Can you believe that the first electric vehicle was developed by a Scottish inventor, Robert Anderson, was back in 1832. It was more than 50 years earlier than the automobile invented using gasoline.
It was powered by non-rechargeable primary cells making it one of the earliest forms of battery-powered transportation.
The modern development and commercialization of electric vehicles began in the late 19th century and early 20th century. In 1881, French inventor, Gustave Trouvé built an electric tricycle. In 1888, German inventor Andreas Flocken created an electric vehicle powered by a battery pack.
But one of the notable power in the field of electric vehicles was Thomas Edison, the American inventor known for his work on the light bulb and other innovation, and he believed in the potential of electric vehicles and experimented with various battery technologies to improve the performance and practicality.
Despite the early interest and development, electric vehicles faced competition from gasoline-powered vehicles, which became more popular due to the advancements in internal combustion engine technology and the availability of gasoline.
It was until the 20th and 21st century, with concerns about climate change and pollution, that electric vehicles, known for its clean energy, began to experience a resurgence in popularity. It is now leading the development of modern electric cars like those coming out from the assembling lines by Tesla, Nissan, Chevrolet, and many others.
We bring you now the two writeups we prepared earlier on—BYD and EV, the autonomous driving. We have to know that with the ambition of China, they are not leaving any areas for the West to survive and they want to prove to the world that they are the greatest.
Everything You Want to Know About BYD
BYD started as a battery manufacturer and showed its first EV model in 2007. It was being criticized for its quality at the car show in Guangzhou. But today is has passed Tesla in worldwide sales of fully electric cars in 2023.
So that you know BYD stands for “Build Your Dreams.” Isn’t it romantic?
BYD was founded in 1995 by Wang Chuanfu who started to make batteries for Motorola and other consumer electronic companies. It was in 2003, BYD bought a factory in Xi’an that was building gasoline-powered cars.
In 2008, Warren Buffett bought nearly 10% of the company for $230 million, and its founder, Wang Chuanfu, targeted to ship battery-electric cars to the U.S. in two years. Because of the cost and the range that the cars can be driven, he tried to focus on gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. It started the delivery of the hybrid vehicles in 2011.
By 2012, car productions have caught up with demand and customers in China also became choosier. Multinational car companies were offering more stylish designs and BYD sales plunged. In 2016, Wang hired an Audi designer who brought with hundreds more car engineers and started to redesign BYD. He also figured the way to replace the industry’s standard chemicals in recharging lithium batteries with nickel, by using cheaper iron and phosphate to replace cobalt and manganese. But its early inexpensive chemicals would run out of juice after even short trips. By 2020, BYD introduced its Blade battery and increase the range with nickel-cobalt batteries at a fraction of its cost.
That year Tesla began making and selling large numbers of cars in China and the electric vehicles have gained their popularity. Tesla also started to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in their less expensive models. Tesla models can run more range and they were more expensive compared with BYD’s cheaper cars but lower range.
BYD’s Seal model makes three-quarter of its parts, savings come from the cheaper lithium iron and phosphate batteries. With labor benefits in China and its development pace has been fast. It has its own industrial park in Shenzhen. BYD produces 40% of China’s car market, and it is expected to be more than 50% in 2025.
BYD sales is over 80% in China and it has grown by one million cars in each of the past two years. Its growth is something not seen by the industry for decades. The last time was the General Motors in 1946 after it has suspended passenger cars during the four preceding years due to World War II.
In China, there are enough factories being built for twice as much cars as its market can absorb. This is typical for China’s strategy in planned economy. This would also create a price war internally. BYD has a new model known as Seagull starts at $11,000 only. With the consumers wary of spending money due to the real estate crisis and a falling stock market, BYD’s low cost is giving it a better position that most rivals to survive.
It still has its advantage as in 2011 they developed the plug-in hybrid cars which is accounted for near half of BYD’s sales in China.
In the area of autonomous driving, BVD picked up the project they suspended a year ago. They have 4,000 engineers working on the autonomous technology and have plan to invest $14 billion in this area.
Today, BYD is building assembly lines in Brazil, Hungary, Thailand, and Uzbekistan, and ready to enter into Mexico and Indonesia. It is rapidly entering into the European market.
Since it is the leading exporter for electric cars, it is building the world’s largest car carrier, BYD Explorer No. 1 is already on its maiden voyage from Shenzhen with 5,000 electric vehicles and it is expected to arrive in the Netherlands by February 21.
Its rapid gain of the European market has alerted the European Union to investigate the Chinese government’s subsidies and this could end up with import tariffs. Already in its annual reports from 2008 through 2022, a total of $2.6 billion in government aids have been shown.
Next Arena for China to Conquest - Autonomous Driving
Do you remember the city of Wuhan? It was infamous in the early 2020 for the COVID-19 pandemic. Now Wuhan is emerging as a key testing center for the autonomous driving in China.
The U.S. been developing driver-less in 2008, but China started in 2013 and had driven a cumulative total of 70 million miles, on par with the U.S.
Last year, in Wuhan there are 500 robotaxis, mostly run by Baidu, China’s equivalent to Google, recorded more than 730,000 ride-hailing trips compared to those combined orders of more than 700,000 in Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. This is in according to the figures of Waymo, the self-driving car developer of Google’s parent company Alphabet.
It was found in Beijing’s autonomous driving center where each robotaxi is remotely monitored by a human sitting in the driving station ready to intervene. This monitoring is required by its regulator.
In the U.S., it has formed a different opinion and insisted the fully autonomous cars should be responsible for making every driving decision on the road and not rely on a human driver, either in the car or remotely.
Apart from Wuhan and Baidu, China has other testing zones led by Poly.ai and AutoX. Many of the country’s developers of electric vehicle, including BYD, who is the world’s largest producer of EV have their in-house teams developing advanced driver-assistance systems, a precursor to autonomous driving. We heard that the Chinese government has been very cautious this time and would want to make sure that this has to be ten times safer than human drivers before rolling it out at a larger scale.
But the U.S. is still leading in several of the technologies underpinning key areas of autonomous driving. This is referring to machine learning and sensors. In this respect, China has strong leadership teams but the rank and file doesn’t have much experience.
China has set its goal and by 2027 it wants to have key technologies to be commercially viable at a large scale. In the ability for companies to tap into Cities’ networks and roadside cameras, the widespread of 5G coverage and digital mapping is something China has the advantage. This type of network have been criticized internationally for China’s enabling mass surveillance by its security agencies. This has given China the edge compared with the Western jurisdiction. After all, machine learning for safe driving is all about data, and data helps to make better decisions.
In both the countries, billions of dollars have been invested in the predicting algorithms and perception software. Every countries are looking for safety in technology. In 2021, the U.S. was considered as 60% ahead of China, but today the difference is narrowed to 50/50 now.
China’s success is driven by factors such as a robust government backing; investments in research and data are available; and a receptive consumer attitude towards new technology. Unlike the Western world that any advance thinking would be challenged by politicians and this has made it difficult for the country to come together.
For the U.S. and the free world to catch up, the open-sources driverless car software would have to put on an open platform and encourage more IT companies to participate. If autonomous driving can succeed in China, knowing that Wuhan is a ten million inhabitants city, and if this is viable then it can cover all the hazardous of the urban driving.
Among all the challenge, there is always to complete the legal framework for liabilities and insurance.
Right now the robotaxi look some kind of weird as the passengers are kept in the backseat behind a perspex screen that blocks the passengers to try to take back the control during the ride. Even if you are allowed to sit in front, the passengers can’t take over the steering. Going forward the cars would need to be redesigned and give more space to the passengers. I can envision the ride to be more like a plane ride and the cabin would give more leisure, except this time there would not be a pilot and copilot. The “robot” would take over. It will give more of a scenic ride when we are doing the cross country. I can already feel the sereneness and look for the experience which can be revolutionary.
But somewhere between the lines we read China would want to lead the world and to win this race. This driverless industry would be pushed and become a geopolitical matter knowing that this is the period of tense US-China relations and the rein in of the trade barrier, including the control of American technology and the computer chips. But if all these differences can be overcome and sharing of data which can bring this driverless car industry forward. If the two countries can put down their differences, there are so many things that we can share.
After all, we have 8.1 billion inhabitants in this world and our average age would perhaps be 76.4 already. Does it really important to know who is winning and who is losing? We have such a bright future in front of us and let’s change the challenges to opportunities that can benefit all mankind.
